听听华尔街著名的熊熊们对股市的评价
Blue-Chip Gains Rouse Bears
By JUSTIN LAHART
October 16, 2006; Page C1
The Dow Jones Industrial Average could break through 12000 this week, another landmark for an index on the move, but some well-known bears of yesteryear are starting to growl again.
In 2000 when stocks hit new peaks almost daily, Merrill Lynch & Co.'s Richard Bernstein, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s Douglas Cliggott and Morgan Stanley's Byron Wien -- all investment strategists -- had figured they were watching a worsening speculative bubble. Mr. Bernstein had become bearish on stocks in June 1998. Mr. Cliggott and Mr. Wien, who have since left their firms and become hedge-fund investment officers, had become negative in February 1999.
They took a lot of flak from peers for their then-contrarian views, but the three bears got it right, which makes their views worth hearing out now. That is especially because these aren't permabears, people who call for the sky to fall every year and get it right every 10 years or so. These three have had their bullish moments. Mr. Bernstein for a time in the mid-1990s was telling clients they should be 100% invested in stocks.
Now all three have their doubts about the upside in stocks.
In the late 1990s, as Mr. Wien says, the market was wildly overvalued. The forces driving it were based mostly on grand hopes for the future. Today the forces are easier to grasp: low long-term interest rates and earnings growth that has stayed strong far longer than most investors thought possible. For the third quarter, analyst estimates put earnings for companies in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index 14% above a year ago on average, according to Reuters Estimates. They have been rising at an unbroken double-digit pace for more than three years.
Mr. Wien, Mr. Cliggott and Mr. Bernstein all believe profits are at risk in the quarter to come, and that could weigh on share-price gains and possibly push the major stock indexes lower.
Each has made his own mark on Wall Street outside of his bearish mentality. Mr. Bernstein is known for bringing more hard-core statistical analysis to navigating the market. Mr. Cliggott is known for having an especially sunny disposition, even though he's often down on stocks. Mr. Wien produces a widely followed annual list of 10 expected surprises on Wall Street. His surprise in 2000: The Internet "meets its Waterloo."
Mr. Bernstein sees the S&P 500 index little changed in a year from where it stood Friday, at 1365.62. Mr. Cliggott says stock prices are fairly valued now, but if profits give way, stocks could drop 10% to 15%. Mr. Wien also sees a rough patch coming for the stock market.
Profits have been soaring because corporate sales have grown faster than expenses. That has pushed profit margins -- the proportion of revenue that falls to the bottom line -- to their highest levels ever across the broader economy. But the housing slump threatens consumer spending. And if costs for, say, wages rise more briskly, margins could contract and take a bite out of earnings.
"We're way over trend on the earnings side, so I think we'll see earnings coming way below expectations in 2007," says Mr. Cliggott, who left J.P. Morgan in 2002 and is chief investment officer at Race Point Asset Management, a hedge fund.
Of course, stock skeptics have argued for well over a year that the profit boom couldn't last, and they've been wrong. Falling energy prices and low long-term interest rates could help to boost profit margins in the months ahead. Moreover, many companies are benefiting from strong growth overseas, even as the U.S. economy apparently slows. Just last week, General Electric Co. said its revenue grew 12% in the third quarter, thanks in part to booming industrial sales outside of the U.S.
But Mr. Wien thinks energy prices are going back up. Mr. Bernstein thinks the financial sector is vulnerable because there's too much debt out there. Mr. Cliggott is worried about the housing slowdown.
Mr. Bernstein says the place to park money is in the market's 100 largest companies such as GE. In the past when earnings growth has weakened, investors have become more "Darwinistic," searching out companies that could survive a slowdown. That pushes them into the shares of big companies, he says.
The dynamic could continue to push the Dow and S&P 500 ahead of the Russell 2000 index, which is dominated by small stocks and has rallied a bit recently after lagging earlier this year. Mr. Wien, who left Morgan Stanley last year to become chief investment strategist at Pequot Capital Management, worries that the war in Iraq and the war on terror could weigh on the economy. He also worries that the U.S. is losing the advantage in innovation that helped propel the stock market higher in the 1990s.
His favorite place to invest is in agricultural commodities and his interest is outside of the U.S. "The standard of living is rising around the world and people want better food, more food," he says. "More meat."
He dislikes consumer staples -- companies that make everyday items such as razor blades and soft drinks -- because he thinks rising costs and increased global competition will eat away at profits. In contrast, Mr. Cliggott thinks there are so many investors out there like Mr. Wien with low expectations for these companies that their shares have gotten cheap.
On this count, one of them will be wrong this time.
By JUSTIN LAHART
October 16, 2006; Page C1
The Dow Jones Industrial Average could break through 12000 this week, another landmark for an index on the move, but some well-known bears of yesteryear are starting to growl again.
In 2000 when stocks hit new peaks almost daily, Merrill Lynch & Co.'s Richard Bernstein, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s Douglas Cliggott and Morgan Stanley's Byron Wien -- all investment strategists -- had figured they were watching a worsening speculative bubble. Mr. Bernstein had become bearish on stocks in June 1998. Mr. Cliggott and Mr. Wien, who have since left their firms and become hedge-fund investment officers, had become negative in February 1999.
They took a lot of flak from peers for their then-contrarian views, but the three bears got it right, which makes their views worth hearing out now. That is especially because these aren't permabears, people who call for the sky to fall every year and get it right every 10 years or so. These three have had their bullish moments. Mr. Bernstein for a time in the mid-1990s was telling clients they should be 100% invested in stocks.
Now all three have their doubts about the upside in stocks.
In the late 1990s, as Mr. Wien says, the market was wildly overvalued. The forces driving it were based mostly on grand hopes for the future. Today the forces are easier to grasp: low long-term interest rates and earnings growth that has stayed strong far longer than most investors thought possible. For the third quarter, analyst estimates put earnings for companies in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index 14% above a year ago on average, according to Reuters Estimates. They have been rising at an unbroken double-digit pace for more than three years.
Mr. Wien, Mr. Cliggott and Mr. Bernstein all believe profits are at risk in the quarter to come, and that could weigh on share-price gains and possibly push the major stock indexes lower.
Each has made his own mark on Wall Street outside of his bearish mentality. Mr. Bernstein is known for bringing more hard-core statistical analysis to navigating the market. Mr. Cliggott is known for having an especially sunny disposition, even though he's often down on stocks. Mr. Wien produces a widely followed annual list of 10 expected surprises on Wall Street. His surprise in 2000: The Internet "meets its Waterloo."
Mr. Bernstein sees the S&P 500 index little changed in a year from where it stood Friday, at 1365.62. Mr. Cliggott says stock prices are fairly valued now, but if profits give way, stocks could drop 10% to 15%. Mr. Wien also sees a rough patch coming for the stock market.
Profits have been soaring because corporate sales have grown faster than expenses. That has pushed profit margins -- the proportion of revenue that falls to the bottom line -- to their highest levels ever across the broader economy. But the housing slump threatens consumer spending. And if costs for, say, wages rise more briskly, margins could contract and take a bite out of earnings.
"We're way over trend on the earnings side, so I think we'll see earnings coming way below expectations in 2007," says Mr. Cliggott, who left J.P. Morgan in 2002 and is chief investment officer at Race Point Asset Management, a hedge fund.
Of course, stock skeptics have argued for well over a year that the profit boom couldn't last, and they've been wrong. Falling energy prices and low long-term interest rates could help to boost profit margins in the months ahead. Moreover, many companies are benefiting from strong growth overseas, even as the U.S. economy apparently slows. Just last week, General Electric Co. said its revenue grew 12% in the third quarter, thanks in part to booming industrial sales outside of the U.S.
But Mr. Wien thinks energy prices are going back up. Mr. Bernstein thinks the financial sector is vulnerable because there's too much debt out there. Mr. Cliggott is worried about the housing slowdown.
Mr. Bernstein says the place to park money is in the market's 100 largest companies such as GE. In the past when earnings growth has weakened, investors have become more "Darwinistic," searching out companies that could survive a slowdown. That pushes them into the shares of big companies, he says.
The dynamic could continue to push the Dow and S&P 500 ahead of the Russell 2000 index, which is dominated by small stocks and has rallied a bit recently after lagging earlier this year. Mr. Wien, who left Morgan Stanley last year to become chief investment strategist at Pequot Capital Management, worries that the war in Iraq and the war on terror could weigh on the economy. He also worries that the U.S. is losing the advantage in innovation that helped propel the stock market higher in the 1990s.
His favorite place to invest is in agricultural commodities and his interest is outside of the U.S. "The standard of living is rising around the world and people want better food, more food," he says. "More meat."
He dislikes consumer staples -- companies that make everyday items such as razor blades and soft drinks -- because he thinks rising costs and increased global competition will eat away at profits. In contrast, Mr. Cliggott thinks there are so many investors out there like Mr. Wien with low expectations for these companies that their shares have gotten cheap.
On this count, one of them will be wrong this time.
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